Stage 10 of the 92nd Tour de France will be the first big test for the rider's climbing legs. It comes right after the rest day so it will be a little more difficult. The stage is in southeast France, from Grenoble to Courchevel, and takes the riders over 192.5K.
The two big features on the stage are the Cormet-de-Roselend and the summit finish on Courchevel (both cat 1). Cormet-de-Roselend should provide a springboard for an attack, possibly sticking to the end. It was back in 1992 when Claudio Chiappucci did just that to go on a long solo move. However, this year there will be around 70K from the summit of Cormet-de-Roselend to the stage finish.
The first mountain stage is always a spot for Lance Armstrong to show his legs. Look for Armstrong to blast or a new Tour champion to take shape. The rider wearing Yellow at the end of this stage will be a serious contender for overall in Paris.
This could be the stage to decide the 2005 Tour de France. Stage 11 (13 July) comes the day after the mountainous stage to Courchevel (stage 10). The rider's legs will have already been weakened when they start their 173K journey from Courchevel to Briançon.
Stage 11 features three categorized climbs, the Col de la Madeleine (HC), Col du Télégraphe (Cat 1) and the Col du Galibier (HC). Most of the riders will be happy to ride soft on the first pass, Col de la Madeleine. The climb is a beast (25.4K long, ave grade 6.1%) and comes early into the stage. Then the riders have long a descent and some flat riding, before they face the remaining two climbs. The Col du Télégraphe and the Col du Galibier are really the same climb, coming in quick succession. Jan Ullrich will be particularly attentive, the Galibier is where Marco Pantani put in the death blow to his 1998 Tour chances. In the cold and rainy conditions Pantani launched a sudden attack four kilometers from the summit to win the Maillot Jaune.
From the top of the Col du Galibier there are 40K down to Briançon. Every rider will be on the limit and pushing their machines fast to the finish. The men that make it to Briançon first will be the men to keep an serious eye on for the final overall in Paris.
Stages 14 and 15 will be hard, very hard. Stage 14 will put all sorts of pain into the riders legs, making the following stage 15 even crazier. Stage 15 is out of this world, and we will preview that stage in the coming days. But now the focus is on stage 14 (16 July), from Agde to Ax-3 Domaines.
The stage is a whopping 220.5K long, covering the Port de Pailhères (2001m, 15.2K, 8% ave) and the Ax-3 Domaines (1372 m, 9.1K, 7.3% ave). Port de Pailhères is a hors category brute that will lift the riders up to 2000 meters. Towards the summit the gradient kicks up to 10%, with a max of 12.5%. Lance Armstrong will remember this climb painfully so as he was ripped to shreds here by Team Bianchi in 2003.
Dropping down around 20K to the base of the final climb, the cat 1 Ax-3 Domaines. Armstrong suffered here too in 2003, but also had good fortune in 2001. It is only a cat 1 climb, but coming directly after the Port de Pailhères it will put the polish on the riders.
What does BiciRace.com think? The big GC guns are going to wait this one out, preferring to save their energy for stage 15. An ambitious break will move clear, with one of our Euskaltel-Euskadi friends. Remember that this stage finishes in the close to the Basque team's headquarters and they will want to impress.
Stage 15 will crush the bones of the weak, and only champions will be left at the top of the overall. The stage from Lézat-sur-Lèze to Saint-Lary Soulan (Pla d'Adet) has the ability to make or break Tour ambitions. Coming in at 205.5K and featuring six categorized climbs, this will be no walk in the park.
The climbs are so numerous that the BiciRace.com programming crew was forced to give them in a list format. This makes for easy reading of the hard riding.
85K Col du Portet d'Aspet Alt. 1,069m Montée de 2.7K at 8.4%
100.5K Col de Menté Alt. 1,349m Montée de 7K at 8.1%
137.5K Col du Portillon Alt. 1,320m Montée de 8.3K at 7.2%
162K Col de Peyresourde Alt. 1,569m Montée de 13K at 6.9%
182.5K Col de Val Louron-Azet Alt. 1,580m Montée de 7.5K at 7.9%
205K Saint-Lary Soulan (Pla d'Adet) Alt. 1.669m Montée de 10.7K at 7.6%
The short and steep climbs look like something you would see in Liège-Bastogne-Liège. Towards the later half, the fires will start burn strong. Fireworks will go when the group hits the final two climbs, Col de Val Louron-Azet and Pla d'Adet.
In this region it will be hot, sticky and Spanish, just like back in 1991 when Miguel Indurain worked over a fading Greg LeMond. The Col de Val Louron-Azet gave Big Mig his spring-board to overall victory and in 2005 it will provide a similar launch pad. The final climb of Pla d'Adet comes directly after Louron-Azet and could seal the deal on the Tour. It is the final mountain-top finish in the Tour de France, and the guns will be firing. Any energy that was saved from stage 14 will be used today. Gaining 850m in altitude, at an average of 7.6%, the Pla d'Adet will be decisive. Look for an escape group on the stage or an all-out GC battle.