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Tour de France, France

2 - 24 July

Tour Challengers

The Dust Devil's Inside Look

Main

Here's a comprehensive look at how the competition stacks up for this year's bid to dethrone Lance Armstrong. The Dust Devil rates each man's skills (from 1 to 10, 10 being the best) in each of the key disciplines required for victory. The final odds, according to the Dust Devil, are given for each of the riders' chances for overall victory in Paris.

Lance Armstrong (Discovery Channel)

Lance goes into the Tour De France as the defending Champion as well as the odds on favorite. The last time somebody besides Armstrong won the Tour was in 1998 with Marco Pantani. This big block of time that Armstrong has remained undefeated in the Tour de France puts into perspective the stranglehold he has had on the race.

Why is he the favorite? First, I believe that he will not leave the sport without a serious fight. This is his last race-and his most beloved race. Armstrong is the ultimate competitor, the victor (should it turn out to be somebody else) will have to pry the trophy from his cold dead hands.

Second, he is bullet proof. He seems to be immune to illness and injury that other riders are prone to. He also has the amazing sporting ability to always be in the right place at the right time, or rather, never in the wrong place at the wrong time. You will never see him fall prey to the accident that took down Hamilton and Leipheimer in stage one of 2003, or Iban Mayo last year, or the crash that took down Beloki in 2003. His animal-like instinct of how to position himself is unprecedented in the peloton.

Third, he has an amazing team. Any shortcomings in Armstrong's form will be made up for by the mighty Discovery Channel squad. Never, and I mean never has a team had the macro-focus of leadership and devotion down to a science as the USPS/ Discovery Channel teams have had. They know how to help him win, and in the Tour that counts for almost as much as the team leaders form. You won't see any willy-nilly attacks coming from the boys in blue. They're all gathered around LA in the bunch protecting him from the wind, getting him food and drink/clothes, and setting as infernal a pace as possible to discourage any breakaways.

Lastly, he has the experience. He's the defending champ X6. He knows how to measure his efforts, and he knows how to time his form down to the minute. He knows where to be and when to be there. He is the ultimate poker player and the Tour is the World Series of poker. True, everybody's reign must come to an end. But the way things look right now, I think he's on track to go out on top.

Time Trial:  10
Climbing:  8
Team:  10
Mental:  10
Odds:   2 to 1

(News special: Why Lance Armstrong Will Win the Tour de France)

Jan Ullrich (T-Mobile)

Jan is the biggest challenger (on paper). I think being humbled year after year by Armstrong's dominance has had to have taken a toll on Ullrich's self-confidence. After all these years, he hasn't found a chink in LA's armour. And unless T-Mobile can organize themselves in an "all for one-one for all" strategy, I believe it may be another second place.

On paper T-Mobile looks like a stellar squad. But it takes more than having the numbers. What counts is when the rubber meets the road. They have lacked a real cohesiveness around one leader, one cause. I think they should assign Alexandre Vinokourov as his number 1 lieutenant. Imagine the disaster and the carnage having Vino on the front driving day after day blowing the field to pieces! But I don't see that happening. I think T-Mobile is lacking that extra bit of confidence in Ullrich to put all their eggs in the big German's basket.

I think for Ullrich to win, it will require the elimination of Armstrong in the form of catastrophic failure (i.e. a crash, or abandonment). I cannot see him beating Armstrong. He is too slow to respond to attacks in the mountains. He lacks the ability to accelerate quickly and attack. He has an enormous engine and can pound on the pedals all day. But when the hammer comes down, the best he can do is follow and try to gain some of it back with his time-trialing prowess. Ordinarily this would be enough to win. This is how Indurain won his five Tours, but the difference is that he did not have somebody like Armstrong (who can climb and TT with the specialists) standing in his way.

Time Trial:  9
Climbing:  7
Team:  8
Mental:  7
Odds:   3 to 1

Ivan Basso (Team CSC)

In my opinion, Ivan Basso is neck and neck with Jan Ullrich with his ability to win, perhaps even edging out the German by a tire's width. We saw a re-born Basso in the Giro. And before his illness overtook him, nobody could match his accelerations in the mountains. He has also overcome his Achilles heel and become a world class time trial specialist.

CSC is a strong team on paper. But, again-what counts is how the riders work together. A team of exceptional time-trialers, flat-landers and climbers is exactly what Basso will need to unseat Armstrong. With a genius like Bjarne Riis driving the boat, they just may find the right combination for victory. I think Riis understands this and won't put up with any vigilantes on his team. Let us not forget, that Riis is the man who studied and eventually figured out a way to slay the mighty Indurain in his bid for #6. He has shown us time and time again that he has the incredible ability to turn a good rider into a champion. I believe it will require some kind of visionary to beat the Texan, by trying tactics nobody has yet used against him.

Basso is the only GC rider that I see with the ability to attack Armstrong in the mountains and put him in danger. Last year we saw he was the only man to follow Armstrong when he attacked. He will need to ride offensively this year though. And with his TT skills, he won't lose all his gains-and could even put more time into LA! His only weakness is that he can be fragile, as we witnessed in the recent Giro d'Italia. He will need to keep himself out of trouble and stay healthy. That is a lot more difficult than it may sound. But if he can do that, I can't see a bigger challenger for Lance Armstrong than Ivan Basso.

Time Trial:  9
Climbing:  9
Team:  8
Mental:  7
Odds:   2 to 1

Levi Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner)

Levi is looking better and more confident than he ever has. His strengths are:  World class time trialling abilities and being a better than average climber. He will definitely be in the top 5 to 7 riders in the TT's. We saw from the Dauphine and the Tour of Georgia that his form is coming right along. And his climbing also looks to have improved a bit over the past years.

His weaknesses: His team. I don't believe his team is anywhere near the level of support necessary to catapult him to the top step of the podium. He will need to keep himself safe and out of harms way to make it to Paris. This is one area of concern for me. I don't think he quite has the extra push necessary to go all the way. Make no mistake about it-I believe L2 is at the top of his game, but I cannot see him as having the ability to deliver the Coup de Grace to the likes of Armstrong and Ullrich. I think he will do a top 5, and in with a chance for a podium spot.

Time Trial:  8
Climbing:  8
Team:  5
Mental:  6
Odds:   6 to 1

Alexandre Vinokourov (T-Mobile)

Although the "official" statement from T-Mobile is they are unified around a single leadership of Jan Ullrich, I will not rule out Vino as a strong plan B should things go south with Ullrich. I think that if Vino was a focused leader with the support of the team backing him, he would have a strong chance of winning this Tour.

The course is not extremely mountainous, which suits him, although Vino's climbing has gotten better year by year to the point he can hang with the leaders. Let's not forget Alpe D'Huez '03, he managed to escape the Armstrong group and finish alone (behind Mayo) ahead of the group containing the GC favorites. It's exactly this kind of thing that makes Vino so dangerous. No terrain is off limits to him. He is not afraid to attack anywhere, anytime.

It sends chills down my spine to think of having to keep tabs on a stone cold assassin like the Kazakh. Perhaps his only weakness if there had to be one, would be time trialling. He can definitely defend himself in a TT, but he is not a specialist. His strength lies in his tireless ability to attack, attack, attack! Unlike the other GC riders most of the time, he is always a threat for an escape. Somebody with his scrappy style has to be creative and determined. What he lacks in natural ability he more than makes up for with boundless determination. If he has free reign to ride his own race, he is a strong bet for a podium. And if he finds the right opportunity he could be in yellow in Paris.

Time Trial:  7
Climbing:  8
Team:  8
Mental:  9
Odds:   5 to 1

Roberto Heras (Liberty Seguros-Würth)

Unfortunately, I see little or no opportunity for Heras to do much more than win a stage (or stages) in La Grand Boucle. The three-time winner of the Vuelta España is one the purest of pure climbers in the peloton. But producing the goods in July is a big difference from September in your home tour, particularly with the course this year being not so heavy on mountainous stages.

He has a very strong team around him. Manolo Saiz is one of the greatest director sportifs the sport knows. And Heras has shown us that he can be a domestique par excellence in his years of service to Armstrong. It takes something special for a pure climber to win the Tour. Take '98 for example; Pantani did it all in one day on the Galibier. When he saw Ullrich in difficulty, he went for the jugular and took 9 minutes out of him in one stage, walking away with the yellow jersey. I believe that is the only way for Heras to win. The odds of that are slim to none (in the DD's humble opinion).

I see Heras as a dark horse at best, with a top 15 finish most likely and perhaps a stage win.

Time Trial:  5
Climbing:  9
Team:  8
Mental:  6
Odds:   10 to 1

Joseba Beloki (Liberty Seguros-Würth)

My heart breaks when I think of the demise of Joseba Beloki. He has nowhere near come back to the form of 2003, nor does it look likely that he will. I don't think he will figure highly in the course of the race other than as a domestique, but his history in the tour deserves mention. I think maybe a top 30 place finish will be in the cards for Joseba.

Time Trial:  6
Climbing:  7
Team:  8
Mental:  5
Odds:   10 to 1

Michael Rogers (Quick-Step)

Mick Rogers is on the climb in his stage race abilities. His performance in the Tour de Suisse confirmed he is a force to be reckoned with. He has yet to prove his staying power as the undisputed leader of a team and with Tom Boonen on board as a strong candidate for the green jersey, I believe Quick-Step's focus may be a little too diverse to meet the requirements for a concerted effort at GC contention.

He has a high probability to walk away victorious in the opening time trial and perhaps have a short spell in yellow and a top 10 finish. I don't see much more than that though. I think he will need to cut his teeth a bit more before becoming a serious contender in a race of grand scale like the Tour de France.

Time Trial: 10
Climbing:  7
Team:  6
Mental:  6
Odds:   6 to 1

Iban Mayo (Euskaltel-Euskadi)

If Iban Mayo is coming into form like he says, then he is taking a very quiet approach. He's probably still smarting from the lesson learned last year of peaking too early. He showed himself on the front of the race in the Tour de Suisse on a few occasions. I would love to see Mayo win the Tour. He's bit of a dark horse though. When he's on his game, he's hard to match in the mountains and he's better than most in the time trials.

He can be fragile though. He will need to show up with his Kevlar vest on and be bullet proof, avoiding accidents, crashes and illness if he wants to have any chance for survival. Then after all that, we need to see where the form is.

I think he is capable of a top 10 finish and if things go very well he could land himself a podium spot. He will need to attack hard and decisively in the mountains to put the kind of time he needs into his rivals. And take back some of the Euskaltel-Euskadi is likely to concede during the TTT.

Time Trial:  8
Climbing:  9
Team:  7
Mental:  7
Odds:  6 to 1

Floyd Landis (Phonak)

We will see what Floyd is made of this year. Not everybody is cut out for team leadership. He had the master as his mentor for the last few years, and he has worked with the best. How that experience will translate over in his bid for victory is another story. He's a strong climber and an excellent time-trialer. Team Phonak should serve him well in the TTT with riders like Botero and Hugo-Peña at his side. It remains to be seen if he has the mental strength to handle sole leadership in a big-time event.

I can see him surprising us with perhaps a time trial victory and a top 10 finish. As good as his team looks and the strength he has shown as a top lieutenant at Armstrong's side, I believe he will finish well outside of victory.

Time Trial:  9
Climbing:  8
Team:  8
Mental:  7
Odds:  6 to 1

Cadel Evans (Davitamon-Lotto)

Cadel Evans will have the same challenge as his fellow Aussie Rogers in that he is on a team with a strong green jersey contender (McEwen). And the fact that they've brought a team of mostly lead out men won't help him when the road goes up or in the TTT for that matter.

Somebody like Evans will need a strong team around him if he ever has hopes of a strong performance in the Tour and I don't think D-L quite cuts the bill. He could surprise us with a stage win, but I think he will be good for a top 15 finish at best.

Time Trial:  7
Climbing:  7
Team:  6
Mental:  7
Odds:  10 to 1

Stefano Garzelli (Liquigas-Bianchi)

Garzelli is a big dark horse at best. He has ridden the tour several times and never really stood out from the crowd. He is a man for the month of May. He could slip away for a stage win later in the race when he is no longer a threat, but I expect little else from my diminutive Italian alter ego.

Time Trial:  6
Climbing:  7
Team:  5
Mental:  6
Odds:  15 to 1